Friday, October 16, 2009

Cars in China

The Chinese auto industry resembles that of the United States in the early 20th century. There are just over 70 auto manufactures in China, many of which started as parts suppliers and later began to put together their own cars and develop a brand, such as BYD, which was originally a battery producer, and Geely, which started as a refrigerator manufacturer, then moved into motorcycles and cars. Like the American car industry in its early stages, there will be a lot of consolidation and will eventually be just a handful of large companies.

China, which has 17 cars for every 1,000 people (compared to about 600 per thousand people in Germany and 800 per thousand people in the United States), is quickly expanding its private car fleet. Car sales topped one million for the first time in September, and earlier this year more cars were sold in China than in the United States, although that was mostly due to a severe slump in US car sales.
Chinese auto companies are aggressively pushing hybrids and electric cars and several will start selling cars in Europe and the US soon.

So rising pollution and oil imports are two enormous problems, but I always worry about other problems in addition to further oil consumption and CO2 emissions that are seldom raised. There is simply no room for many more cars. Given that traffic and parking is already bad in large Chinese cities, adding tens of millions of more cars, whether hybrid or electric or something else, would be a disaster.

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