Two ways of looking at carbon emissions and other data

While clicking around on Wikipedia recently, I came across two maps on global CO2 emissions.


Total CO2 emissions (the developed countries and the rapidly developing economies of Russia, India, and China are the biggest emitters).
CO2 emissions per capita (the U.S., Australia, and the Persian Gulf states are the dirtiest).


This reminded me of a Chinese news article (English translation) that compared the economic consumption levels of the United States and China, adjusted to the population size. The conclusion: “the consumption of China’s 1.3 billion people is only equivalent to a population of 43 million Americans.”

This number is reached by comparing consumption levels, in US dollars, per person in the two countries.

“In 2006, US per capita income was $36,000 and total consumption was nine trillion dollars. The US has a population of 300 million so per capita consumption was $30,000. In 2006, China’s per capita income was $2,000 and its consumption rate was 51%. Thus, per capita consumption was $1,000 or 1/30th of the US per capita consumption. If you divide 1.3 billion by 30, the consumption of China’s 1.3 billion people is only equivalent to a population of 43 million Americans.”

It’s worth noting that consumption levels measured in dollars are considerably skewed by purchasing power and exchange rates. One dollar buys 6.8 yuan at official exchange rates, yet the yuan is undervalued by 15-20% due to government capital controls, and a dollar buys a lot more (2-4 times as much for most goods and services) in China than in the United States because of the lower cost of living.

It all goes to show how data can be selectively chosen and tinkered with to produce very different conclusions. It’s also a reminder that absolute size is not everything, instead the relative amount (or per capita value) is more relevant, especially when comparing among countries. China is the world’s largest source of C02 emissions, yet the average person consumes 1/30th of the average American’s consumption level. The United States is 5% of the world’s population, yet we consume 25% of the world’s energy.

The Yangzte River and other news

I’ve lived within 10-15 miles of the Yangtze River for about 13 of the past 15 months but I had never laid eyes on it until today. I had heard that it’s possible to bike there and back so I tried it out, wearing bike shorts and long underwear under my clothing, and reached the river in just over an hour. It was an interesting ride, sharing a quiet four lane road with trucks, buses, a few cars, many motorcycles and electric bikes, a few tricycles hauling trash, and some pedestrians with luggage, either waiting to be picked up or looking for a ride. On either side of the road were factories, abandoned fields, and run down concrete homes and warehouses.

I expected it to take longer than it did to reach the river, so I wasn’t sure what to make of all the cranes, empty paved lots, and piles of sand and coal. It certainly started to look like a port and there were signs pointing to the Changzhou port and a harbor. I turned down one of the smaller roads headings towards cranes and biked until it ran into a long rolling hill with a narrow road on top. I carried my bike up the hill hoping there was a river on the other side and indeed there it was, the longest river in Asia.

It was only about 100 yards wide and there was a bridge across it, so even though it was much bigger than any canal or river I’ve seen before in China, I thought it was quite the Yangtze River. Once I got on the bridge, I realized that it went to an island on the south side of the river and most of the river was just to the north. From the highest point in the middle of the bridge, I was able to see pretty far and watch two barges go by directly underneath me. There was a port full of cargo containers and cranes and an export customs office on the island and lots of huge ships. I got a lot of strange looks by workers near the river and on the roads there and back people on motorcycles and sometimes an entire bus full of people would turn their heads around stare at me. There must almost never be cyclists out for a casual ride on those roads.

[UPDATE] Some pictures are now online.

The economic situation in China has some parallels to the United States, slowing growth and sharp falls in real estate values and inflation and the government announced a stimulus package of over $500 billion. As in the U.S., there may be an additional bailout for Chinese car companies. In other ways it’s entirely different – GDP growth may slow to 5 or 6% and cities are still growing at an astounding rate

And the largest foreign holder of American debt is now .

A couple other things of note, an oft-forgotten part of China, the expansive northwestern province of Xinjiang, has an interesting debate over ethnic and cultural histories, sparked by several mummies preserved for thousands of years in the dry desert climate.

Kimchi, which is a Korean dish of vegetables pickled with chilies and garlic, is something I eat several times a week at school and on occasional visits to Korean restaurants. In Seoul this week, 2,200 people helped make 143 tons of the stuff. Kimchi has a strong smell so I wonder if the whole city stunk, so I hope it wasn’t a hot day and it was all eaten or refrigerated.

Finally, the Shanghai Marathon is next Sunday, November 30. I signed up and plan to run the full marathon.

Historic

The 44th President of the United States, Barack Obama (奥巴马 “Ao ba ma").

The Presidential election

A sense of doubt always hangs in the air the night before an election, even if there is a big spread in the latest polls, because really all that matters is the vote tally on election day. It’s a little odd to be overseas during such an important election, but I am glad that it’s almost over (I remember talking about it with students in Spain nearly three years ago as rumors emerged about who was going to run), and I’m happy to be removed from all the day-to-day advertisements and gossip. It’s allowed me to take a more critical view and a wider perspective on the race.

Every Chinese paper today had a long article on the election and will certainly have extensive coverage of the results in Thursday’s edition. You can read a collection of views on the election from people around the world in The Guardian.

Everyone is connected to the United States and every nation is affected by our policies, but it’s notable that many in Asia feel strongly that America’s influence is declining as others grow in wealth and power.

In one young Chinese man’s view, "America is going down, while China is rising up." Another commented that "A lot of young people still think America is our enemy. They're quite happy with the sub-prime crisis - they think this is China's chance."
The sentiment in Russia is similar: "We don't beg from the west any more and Washington can't order us around like it did in the 1990s."
Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean former diplomat and now dean of a public policy school, is one of my favorite commentators on current events and he recently described how Asia is handling the and coming out ahead. He’s written several books on how Asia and the West differ, and how the West will no longer dominate world affairs. The subprime crisis and the financial bankruptcies in the Europe and America are one such example of the reversal of roles between the two.

If I have no trouble sleeping tonight I’ll be up in time to see the first results from the East Coast come in as polls close and hopefully see the final results before my first class at 1:25 pm (my morning classes were cancelled for exams).